Toward an early warning system for dengue prevention: modeling climate impact on dengue transmission     

Nicolas Degallier  Charly Favier  Christophe Menkes  Matthieu Lengaigne  Walter M. Ramalho  Régilo Souza  Jacques Servain  Jean-Philippe Boulanger 《Climatic change》2010,98(3-4):581-592

Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans in tropical lands. As an efficient vaccine is not yet available, the only means to prevent epidemics is to control mosquito populations. These are influenced by human behavior and climatic conditions and thus, need constant effort and are very expansive. Examples of succeeded prevention are rare because of the continuous reintroduction of virus or vector from outside, or growing resistance of mosquito populations to insecticides. Climate variability and global warming are other factors which may favour epidemics of dengue. During a pilot study in Claris EC project, a model for the transmission of dengue was built, to serve as a tool for estimating the risk of epidemic transmission and eventually forecasting the risk under climatic change scenarios. An ultimate objective would be to use the model as an early warning system with meteorological forecasts as input, thus allowing better decision making and prevention.  相似文献   

Analysis of the 2002 May earthquake sequence in the central Pyrenees, consequences for the evaluation of the seismic risk at Lourdes, France     

Noalwenn Dubos  Matthieu Sylvander  Annie Souriau  Christian Ponsolles  Sébastien Chevrot  Jean-François Fels  Sébastien Benahmed 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,156(3):527-540

  相似文献   

Patterns in the spatial distribution of Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) revealed by spatially explicit fishing data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sophie Bertrand  Erich Díaz  Matthieu Lengaigne 《Progress in Oceanography》2008,79(2-4):379

Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) stock abundance is tightly driven by the high and unpredictable variability of the Humboldt Current Ecosystem. Management of the fishery therefore cannot rely on mid- or long-term management policy alone but needs to be adaptive at relatively short time scales. Regular acoustic surveys are performed on the stock at intervals of 2 to 4 times a year, but there is a need for more time continuous monitoring indicators to ensure that management can respond at suitable time scales. Existing literature suggests that spatially explicit data on the location of fishing activities could be used as a proxy for target stock distribution. Spatially explicit commercial fishing data could therefore guide adaptive management decisions at shorter time scales than is possible through scientific stock surveys. In this study we therefore aim to (1) estimate the position of fishing operations for the entire fleet of Peruvian anchovy purse–seiners using the Peruvian satellite vessel monitoring system (VMS), and (2) quantify the extent to which the distribution of purse–seine sets describes anchovy distribution. To estimate fishing set positions from vessel tracks derived from VMS data we developed a methodology based on artificial neural networks (ANN) trained on a sample of fishing trips with known fishing set positions (exact fishing positions are known for approximately 1.5% of the fleet from an at-sea observer program). The ANN correctly identified 83% of the real fishing sets and largely outperformed comparative linear models. This network is then used to forecast fishing operations for those trips where no observers were onboard. To quantify the extent to which fishing set distribution was correlated to stock distribution we compared three metrics describing features of the distributions (the mean distance to the coast, the total area of distribution, and a clustering index) for concomitant acoustic survey observations and fishing set positions identified from VMS. For two of these metrics (mean distance to the coast and clustering index), fishing and survey data were significantly correlated. We conclude that the location of purse–seine fishing sets yields significant and valuable information on the distribution of the Peruvian anchovy stock and ultimately on its vulnerability to the fishery. For example, a high concentration of sets in the near coastal zone could potentially be used as a warning signal of high levels of stock vulnerability and trigger appropriate management measures aimed at reducing fishing effort.  相似文献   

Sensitivity equations for hyperbolic conservation law-based flow models     

Vincent Guinot  Matthieu LeménagerBernard Cappelaere 《Advances in water resources》2007

The present paper focuses on the governing equations for the sensitivity of the variables to the parameters in flow models that can be described by one-dimensional scalar, hyperbolic conservation laws. The sensitivity is shown to obey a hyperbolic, scalar conservation law. The sensitivity is a conserved scalar except in the case of discontinuous flow solutions, where an extra, point source term must be added to the equations in order to enforce conservation. The propagation speed of the sensitivity waves being identical to that of the conserved variable in the original conservation law, the system of conservation laws formed by the original hyperbolic equation and the equation satisfied by the sensitivity is linearly degenerate. A consequence on the solution of the Riemann problem is that rarefaction waves for the variable of the original equation result in vacuum regions for the sensitivity. The numerical solution of the hyperbolic conservation law for the sensitivity by finite volume methods requires the implementation of a specific shock detection procedure. A set of necessary conditions is defined for the discretisation of the source term in the sensitivity equation. An application to the one-dimensional kinematic wave equation shows that the proposed numerical technique allows analytical solutions to be reproduced correctly. The computational examples show that first-order numerical schemes do not yield satisfactory numerical solutions in the neighbourhood of moving shocks and that higher-order schemes, such as the MUSCL scheme, should be used for sharp transients.  相似文献   

Influence of the oceanic biology on the tropical Pacific climate in a coupled general circulation model   总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1  

Matthieu Lengaigne  Christophe Menkes  Olivier Aumont  Thomas Gorgues  Laurent Bopp  Jean-Michel André  Gurvan Madec 《Climate Dynamics》2007,28(5):503-516

The influence of chlorophyll spatial patterns and variability on the tropical Pacific climate is investigated by using a fully coupled general circulation model (HadOPA) coupled to a state-of-the-art biogeochemical model (PISCES). The simulated chlorophyll concentrations can feedback onto the ocean by modifying the vertical distribution of radiant heating. This fully interactive biological-ocean-atmosphere experiment is compared to a reference experiment that uses a constant chlorophyll concentration (0.06 mg m⁻³). It is shown that introducing an interactive biology acts to warm the surface eastern equatorial Pacific by about 0.5°C. Two competing processes are involved in generating this warming: (a) a direct 1-D biological warming process in the top layers (0–30 m) resulting from strong chlorophyll concentrations in the upwelling region and enhanced by positive dynamical feedbacks (weaker trade winds, surface currents and upwelling) and (b) a 2-D meridional cooling process which brings cold off-equatorial anomalies from the subsurface into the equatorial mixed layer through the meridional cells. Sensitivity experiments show that the climatological horizontal structure of the chlorophyll field in the upper layers is crucial to maintain the eastern Pacific warming. Concerning the variability, introducing an interactive biology slightly reduces the strength of the seasonal cycle, with stronger SST warming and chlorophyll concentrations during the upwelling season. In addition, ENSO amplitude is slightly increased. Similar experiments performed with another coupled general circulation model (IPSL-CM4) exhibit the same behaviour as in HadOPA, hence showing the robustness of the results.  相似文献   

Testing the genetic relationship between fluid alteration and brecciation in CM chondrites     

Maximilien J. Verdier‐Paoletti  Yves Marrocchi  Lionel G. Vacher  Jrme Gattacceca  Andrey Gurenko  Corinne Sonzogni  Matthieu Gounelle 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(8):1692-1709

Boriskino is a poorly studied CM chondrite with numerous millimeter‐ to centimeter‐scale clasts exhibiting sharp boundaries. Clast textures and mineralogies attest to diverse geological histories with various degrees of aqueous alteration. We conducted a petrographic, chemical, and isotopic study on each clast type of the breccia to investigate if there exists a genetic link between brecciation and aqueous alteration, and to determine the controlling parameter of the extent of alteration. Boriskino is dominated by CM2 clasts for which no specific petrographic type could be assigned based on the chemical compositions and modal abundances of constituents. One clast stands out and is identified as a CM1 lithology, owing to its lack of anhydrous silicates and its overall abundance of dolomite‐like carbonates and acicular iron sulfides. We observe that alteration phases near clast boundaries exhibit foliation features, suggesting that brecciation postdated aqueous alteration. We measured the O‐isotopic composition of Ca‐carbonates and dolomite‐like carbonates to determine their precipitation temperatures following the methodology of Verdier‐Paoletti et al. (2017). Both types of carbonates yield similar ranges of precipitation temperatures independent of clast lithology, ranging from ?13.9 ± 22.4 (2σ) to 166.5 ± 47.3 °C, precluding that temperature alone accounts for the differences between the CM1 and CM2 lithologies. Instead, we suggest that initial water/rock ratios of 0.75 and 0.61 for the CM1 and CM2 clasts, respectively, might control the extent of aqueous alteration. Based on these estimates, we suggest that Boriskino clasts originated from a single parent body with heterogeneous distribution of water either due to local differences in the material permeability or in the initial content of ice available. These conditions would have produced microenvironments with differing geochemical conditions thus leading to a range of degrees of aqueous alteration.  相似文献   

Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Emmanuel M. Vincent  Matthieu Lengaigne  Christophe E. Menkes  Nicolas C. Jourdain  Patrick Marchesiello  Gurvan Madec 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(9-10):1881-1896

The interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and its influence on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the South Pacific are investigated using observations and ERA40 reanalysis over the 1979?C2002 period. In austral summer, the SPCZ displays four typical structures at interannual timescales. The first three are characterized by a diagonal orientation of the SPCZ and account for 85% of the summer seasons. One is close to climatology and the other two exhibit a 3° northward or southward departure from the SPCZ climatological position. In contrast, the fourth one, that only encompasses three austral summer seasons (the extreme 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Ni?o events and the moderate 1991/1992 El Ni?o event), displays very peculiar behaviour where the SPCZ largely departs from its climatological position and is zonally oriented. Variability of the western/central Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) is shown to modulate moisture transport south of the equator, thereby strongly constraining the location of the SPCZ. The SPCZ location is also shown to strongly modulate the atmospheric circulation variability in the South Pacific with specific patterns for each class. However, independently of its wide year-to-year excursions, the SPCZ is always collocated with the zero relative vorticity at low levels while the maximum vorticity axis lies 6° to the south of the SPCZ position. This coherent atmospheric organisation in the SPCZ region is shown to constrain tropical cyclogenesis to occur preferentially within 10° south of the SPCZ location as this region combines all the large-scale atmospheric conditions that favour the breeding of TCs. This analysis also reveals that cyclogenesis in the central Pacific (in the vicinity of French Polynesia) only occurs when the SPCZ displays a zonal orientation while this observation was previously attributed to El Ni?o years in general. Different characteristics of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Pacific equatorial warming are shown to impact differently on the SPCZ position, suggesting that for regional scales, such as the South Pacific, the SPCZ classification is more appropriate than a simple ENSO index to characterize TC interannual variability. These findings suggest that forecasting the strength of El Ni?o through SST variations in the eastern Pacific may not be sufficient to accurately predict cyclogenesis in the South Pacific, especially east of the dateline.  相似文献   

The Paris CM chondrite: Secondary minerals and asteroidal processing     

Yves Marrocchi  Matthieu Gounelle  Ingrid Blanchard  Florent Caste  Anton T. Kearsley 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(7):1232-1249

We report a petrographic and mineralogical survey of Paris, a new CM chondrite considered to be the least‐altered CM identified so far (Hewins et al. 2014 ). Compared to other CMs, Paris exhibits (1) a higher concentration of Fe‐Ni metal beads, with nickel contents in the range 4.1–8.1 wt%; (2) the systematic presence of thin lamellae and tiny blebs of pentlandite in pyrrhotite grains; and (3) ubiquitous tochilinite/cronstedtite associations with higher FeO/SiO₂ and S/SiO₂ ratios. In addition, Paris shows the highest concentration of trapped ³⁶Ar reported so far for a CM chondrite (Hewins et al. 2014 ). In combination with the findings of previous studies, our data confirm the reliability of (1) the alteration sequence based on the chemical composition of tochilinite/cronstedtite associations to quantify the fluid alteration processes and (2) the use of Cr content variability in type II ferroan chondrule olivine as a proxy of thermal metamorphism. In contrast, the scales based on (1) the Fe³⁺ content of serpentine in the matrix to estimate the degree of aqueous alteration and (2) the chemical composition of Fe‐Ni metal beads for quantifying the intensity of the thermal metamorphism are not supported by the characteristics of Paris. It also appears that the amount of trapped ³⁶Ar is a sensitive indicator of the secondary alteration modifications experienced by chondrites, for both aqueous alteration and thermal metamorphism. Considering Paris, our data suggest that this chondrite should be classified as type 2.7 as it suffered limited but significant fluid alteration and only mild thermal metamorphism. These results point out that two separated scales should be used to quantify the degree of the respective role of aqueous alteration and thermal metamorphism in establishing the characteristics of CM chondrites.  相似文献   

The Orgueil meteorite: 150 years of history     

Matthieu Gounelle  Michael E. Zolensky 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(10):1769-1794

The goal of this paper is to summarize 150 yr of history of a very special meteorite. The Orgueil meteorite fell near Montauban in southwestern France on May 14, 1864. The bolide, which was the size of the full Moon, was seen across Western France, and almost immediately made the news in local and Parisian newspapers. Within a few weeks of the fall, a great diversity of analyses were performed under the authority of Gabriel Auguste Daubrée, geology professor at the Paris Museum, and published in the Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences. The skilled scientists reported the presence of iron sulfides, hydrated silicates, and carbonates in Orgueil. They also characterized ammonium salts which are now gone, and observed sulfates being remobilized at the surface of the stone. They identified the high water and carbon contents, and noted similarities with the Alais meteorite, which had fallen in 1806, 300 km away. While Daubrée and his colleagues noted the similarity of the Orgueil organic matter with some terrestrial humus, they were cautious not to make a direct link with living organisms. One century later, Nagy and Claus were less prudent and announced the discovery of “organized” elements in some samples of Orgueil. Their observations were quickly discredited by Edward Anders and others who also discovered that some pollen grains were intentionally placed into the rock back in the 1860s. Orgueil is now one of the most studied meteorites, indeed one of the most studied rocks of any kind. Not only does it contain a large diversity of carbon‐rich compounds, which help address the question of organo‐synthesis in the early solar system but its chemical composition is also close to that of the Sun's photosphere and serves as a cosmic reference. Secondary minerals, which make up 99% of the volume of Orgueil, were probably formed during hydrothermal alteration on the parent‐body within the first few million years of the solar system; their study is essential to our understanding of fluid–rock interaction in asteroids and comets. Finally, the Orgueil meteorite probably originated from a volatile‐rich “cometary” outer solar system body as indicated by its orbit. Because it bears strong similarities to other carbonaceous chondrites that originated on dark asteroids, this cometary connection supports the idea of a continuum between dark asteroids and comets.  相似文献   

Mineralogy and petrography of C asteroid regolith: The Sutter's Mill CM meteorite     

Michael Zolensky  Takashi Mikouchi  Marc Fries  Robert Bodnar  Peter Jenniskens  Qing‐zhu Yin  Kenji Hagiya  Kazumasa Ohsumi  Mutsumi Komatsu  Matthew Colbert  Romy Hanna  Jessie Maisano  Richard Ketcham  Yoko Kebukawa  Tomoki Nakamura  Moe Matsuoka  Sho Sasaki  Akira Tsuchiyama  Matthieu Gounelle  Loan Le  James Martinez  Kent Ross  Zia Rahman 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(11):1997-2016

Based upon our characterization of three separate stones by electron and X‐ray beam analyses, computed X‐ray microtomography, Raman microspectrometry, and visible‐IR spectrometry, Sutter's Mill is a unique regolith breccia consisting mainly of various CM lithologies. Most samples resemble existing available CM2 chondrites, consisting of chondrules and calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusion (CAI) set within phyllosilicate‐dominated matrix (mainly serpentine), pyrrhotite, pentlandite, tochilinite, and variable amounts of Ca‐Mg‐Fe carbonates. Some lithologies have witnessed sufficient thermal metamorphism to transform phyllosilicates into fine‐grained olivine, tochilinite into troilite, and destroy carbonates. One finely comminuted lithology contains xenolithic materials (enstatite, Fe‐Cr phosphides) suggesting impact of a reduced asteroid (E or M class) onto the main Sutter's Mill parent asteroid, which was probably a C class asteroid. One can use Sutter's Mill to help predict what will be found on the surfaces of C class asteroids such as Ceres and the target asteroids of the OSIRIS‐REx and Hayabusa 2 sample return missions (which will visit predominantly primitive asteroids). C class asteroid regolith may well contain a mixture of hydrated and thermally dehydrated indigenous materials as well as a significant admixture of exogenous material would be essential to the successful interpretation of mineralogical and bulk compositional data.  相似文献